I was not the first guy to get bearish in 2022, but by May I got the memo just in the nick of time. This led to a major shift in my portfolio that allowed me to profit on the way down. And I have been steadfastly bearish since.
But just like the Fed, my outlook is “data dependent”. And recent data has me becoming less bearish. Note that is not the same thing as becoming bullish.
Why the change of heart? And what does that mean for trading strategy going forward?
Read on below for the full story…
Market Commentary
First, let’s start with some important terminology. Less bearish is quite different than being bullish.
Imagine that I previously saw 80% odds of bear market and lower stock prices in 2023. Thus, only a 20% possibility of bull market.
Given recent information my view has shifted down to about 65% bearish probability versus 35% bullish. That is nearly 2 to 1 in favor of bear market forming… just a notch less bearish than before. The next logical question is…
Why still bearish?
You have already me talk non-stop since last May about all the reasons to be…
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