Cronos Isn’t in a Rush. Investors in Cronos Stock Shouldn’t Be Either

Cronos Group (NASDAQ:CRON) shares have struggled of late. Since early March highs, Cronos stock is down about 35%.

Cronos stock managed to put together a modest rally last month, but it has faded. CRON sits at a one-month low at the moment.

To be sure, CRON stock isn’t alone. Other cannabis majors are scuffling. Canopy Growth(NYSE:CGC) has dropped steadily since late April, losing about a quarter of its value.

Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) is off almost 30% since mid-March. Tilray(NASDAQ:TLRY) has stabilized, but after a long, steep decline. Hexo(NYSEAMERICAN:HEXO) has slid 41%.

For the biggest cannabis stocks, investor patience is drying up. Why that is remains unclear. Valuation could be a concern. It’s likely that there’s a “OK, what’s next?” response after Canadian legalization in October.

The problem for Cronos Group stock, however, is that…

even when sentiment returns, it’s not clear what the company can do to spark investor enthusiasm.

The near- to mid-term worry is that if cannabis stocks continue following, CRON stock will too. And if they rise, Cronos stock may well underperform peers until the wisdom of its plans become more clear – and Cronos starts showing real success.

The Canada Problem for Cronos Stock

It’s become increasingly clear that the Canadian market isn’t big enough and that there are real worries about too much supply in cannabis flower more broadly. As I’ve noted before, prices have crashed in U.S. regulated markets due to oversupply.

In March, Tilray’s CEO predicted similar issues in Canada as soon as next year. Aurora’s strategy clearly is predicated on the idea that Canada alone isn’t enough.

Cronos seems to be operating on similar principles. Despite its US$1.8 billion investmentfrom Altria (NYSE:MO), its production capacity might not even make the top ten in Canada, as the Motley Fool has noted. Even with that cash on the books, Cronos isn’t racing to build out its production capabilities.

That strategy makes some sense, particularly if as feared the Canadian market simply isn’t big enough. Oversupply in dried flower is a real concern. But as far as CRON stock goes, it raises the question of what catalyst might arrive any time soon.

Cronos might be right in playing the long game. Investors – and particularly cannabis stock investors – haven’t shown that same patience in recent months.

The Strategy

As CEO Mike Gorenstein put it on the Q1 conference call, “Like Altria, we believe that the best way to create value through the supply chain is by working with contract farmers and not being farmers ourselves.”

Cronos simply isn’t all that interested in producing dried cannabis flower. It would rather let others spend the money to create that supply, assuming it can then buy flower at cheaper rates down the line.

Instead, the company is focused on derivatives and R&D. It’s working with Ginkgo Biosciences to create new strains of cannabis that can yield purer and easier-to-extract THC and CBD.

Its new Cronos Device Labs in Israel will focus on fine-tuning vaporizers for varying customer demands. Production in Colombia is focusing on hemp over cannabis, with Gorenstein predicting on the Q1 call that CBD would outpace THC in terms of growth in the coming years.

The Altria partnership should give Cronos an edge in these areas, given that tobacco company’s long history with regulators. But there’s risk here as well.

The efforts with Ginkgo may not pan out. Even if they do, the new strains may not be all that valuable, if ‘natural’ strains are abundant and cheap as other companies build out capacity. Vaporizer demand may be lower than expected.

There’s certainly a risk that while Cronos plays around the edges of the market, rivals like Canopy and Aurora simply overpower the market. Canopy has more cash thanks to its deal with Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ,NYSE:STZ.B).