This Bank Giant Just Crossed the 50-Day MA: Bearish Indicator?

In the wake of regional bank failures earlier this year, the U.S. banking sector has grappled with substantial challenges, which include customer deposit deficits, rising deposit costs, sluggish loan growth, and diminishing profit margins. Yet, it demonstrated resilience later.

This ostensible resurgence became evident as the Federal Reserve propelled benchmark interest rates to the highest in over two decades, a trend expected to reverse in the forthcoming year. Amplified interest rates produce gains for banks due to elevated net interest income.

Despite this, the U.S. banking sector continues to bleed deposits. Throughout the second quarter alone, FDIC-insured banks experienced an almost $100 billion downward deposit shift. The industry’s net income was diminished by $9 billion to $70.80 billion in the second quarter, with the average net interest margin contracting by three basis points to 3.28%.

Moreover, Federal Reserve Economic Data reveals a stunning $100 billion diminution in U.S. commercial banking deposits in just three weeks. Deposits plummeted from $17.38 trillion on September 27 to a disconcerting $17.28 trillion by October 18.

Furthermore, according to Moody’s assessment, U.S. banks could struggle with at least $650 billion in unrealized losses in their securities portfolios, a 15% increase from the $558 billion losses experienced at the second quarter’s end. This comes after expectations of extended higher interest rates led to a bond market collapse in the third quarter.

The share performance of the nation’s second-largest financial institution, Bank of America Corporation (BAC), has languished alongside other bank stocks given these circumstances. BAC reported $131.60 billion in unrealized losses in its securities portfolio for the fiscal third quarter that ended September 30, 2023.

BAC continues to weather a period of economic volatility despite a 14% year-to-date decrease in its share values. However, investors are increasingly concerned about the bank’s diversified investment portfolio status during long-standing escalated interest rates.

BAC’s early pandemic decision to allot billions into long-term Treasury bonds and mortgage bonds during a time of increased new deposits has now become a significant financial burden.

An influx of deposits accelerated by federal aid significantly outpaced the growth of loans during this period. The acting CFO at the time, Paul Donofrio, divided the surplus funds between long-term fixed-income products, with the remainder placed in short-term and floating-rate debt. This strategy was intended to safeguard the bank’s net interest margin if rates stagnated or fell.

Over the years, BAC’s CEO, Brian Moynihan, has consistently underscored that the bank stands to make significant gains when interest rates rise, backed by a solid deposit base ready for financial expansion following a strategic pivot by the Fed. However, amid the current high-interest rate climate, BAC has lagged among America’s banking heavyweights.

Low-yielding investments and a decrease in the value of holdings upon the Fed’s increased rates imply reduced earnings from its investments for BAC. Its investment holdings presently display considerable unrealized losses, missing competitive rates since 2007. As of June 30, 2023, these holdings show paper losses on those debt securities exceeding $109 billion, which increased to $136.22 billion by the third quarter’s end.

With approximately $603.37 billion tied up in…

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