By far the most popular article I have written in years was from last week because it crystalized what so many of us are feeling. Here it is again:
Unfortunately, everything said then is just as true now. That being that the only trend is NO trend. And that is true even after a few solid days in the plus column.
Gladly, we can add a few key updates to help us plot our trading plan for the days ahead. That is what is in store in this week’s commentary below…
Market Commentary
Let’s start with a helpful analogy that will frame our discussion today. And that is to appreciate that the stock market is quite similar to a helium balloon.
Meaning that its natural state is to float higher unless it is being held down by a stronger, negative force that pushes it lower.
Please read that again so it sinks in.
Now if we pull back to the big picture, we can easily appreciate that state of floating higher is true because 85-90% of investment history is framed by bullish conditions where going up is more likely than going down. However, we find this picture to also to be the case during bear markets when negative events are removed.
Consider the start of the year…how the market climbed day by day in January. Perhaps it was because there was really nothing negative to hold stocks down.
Next comes February with an increase in hawkish rhetoric from the Fed which starts to reign in some of the early enthusiasm. Next comes about concerns of a potential…
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